Are early Christmas sales an indicator of tough economic times?

If we're headed for more tough economic times, Thursday's Le Droit may have found an unconventional leading indicator to support this: Christmas sales are coming early this year. Ottawa-area Costcos are already selling artificial Christmas trees and snow globes, apparently. And the Bay is planning on kicking off its Christmas sales a month early, starting in mid-October instead of mid-November.

The retailers aren't citing pending economic doom as their motivation. Costco is running with an-early-bird-catches the worm strategy; its spokesman told Le Droit, "We strongly believe in the concept of 'first on the shelves, first sold.'" The Bay, meanwhile, says it has found people like to put out their Christmas decorations before the weather turns really cold.

But pretend for a moment that you're a retailer, and you expect that the economy is going to implode smack dab in the middle of the busiest sales period of the year. What would you do? I'd try to get people to do their Christmas shopping as early as possible, before stock markets have a chance to collapse, companies lay off employees and consumers shut their wallets.

Oh, the irony!

Every so often, when the privatization of liquor sales comes up, someone makes the argument that public liquor stores are less likely to encourage overconsumption than private liquor stores. Pardon my cynicism, but the skeptic in me believes governments run liquor stores to make money, not to stop people from getting drunk.

This gem in my weekend newspaper supports my suspicion:

Is pay-what-you-want a viable hotel pricing strategy?

My fiancée and I are taking a trip to Halifax this summer. I booked a mystery hotel online using Priceline's name-your-own-price function, and ended up with the Westin Nova Scotian.

In researching the hotel, I discovered that they ran a very interesting promotion over spring break, where they set aside 60 rooms for guests to pay what they wanted. Pay-what-you-want is a unique (if not gimmicky) pricing strategy that seems to have been popping up quite a bit in recent years, perhaps thanks to Radiohead's use of the strategy to sell their album In Rainbows.

Why aren't car sales going down?

When I was writing my previous blog post, I used shoes and shoelaces as an example of complements (in economic theory, when the price of one good goes up, demand for its complement will go down).

As I continued writing, I realized that shoes and shoelaces was a lame example and that perhaps cars and gasoline would be a better example. Unless you've got an electric car or you just want somewhere to sit, a car isn't much use without gasoline. Likewise, unless you're an arsonist, you can't do much with a jug of gasoline if you don't have a car.

B.C. cruise tax would hurt Washington and Alaska

When one jurisdiction raises its consumption taxes, it's usually good for the neighbouring jurisdiction. This is common sense — if the cigarette tax is almost four times higher in Montana than neighbouring North Dakota, for example, Montanans will drive to North Dakota to save money on cigarettes. Montana businesses lose cigarette revenue and the government loses tax revenue, while North Dakota gains.

But a potential tax on cruise ship passengers visiting Victoria (hat tip to Andrea Craig), as advocated by consultant and UVic lecturer Brian Scarfe, could actually be a bad thing for neighbouring jurisdictions.

An ingenious nudge

I discovered a very bright "nudge" while meeting up with some friends at the local Royal Oak last night (for non-Ottawan readers, it's probably the biggest pub chain in the nation's capital).

The Royal Oak does a good job of providing a decent atmosphere, decent food and a decent pint. They are also do a surprisingly good job of using anchors to their advantage. Anchors are quite simple and can be very effective — by triggering a customer's mind to a specific price or rate, you can affect how much they value a product.